National Preparedness Month: NOAA meteorologist and Navy personnel discuss Pacific hurricane season and how to prepare for disasters

Hurricane season in the Pacific runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are anticipating one to four tropical cyclones across the central Pacific hurricane region this season. A typical season has four or five tropical cyclones which include the following types based on the severity of the storm: tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

According to NOAA’s John Bravender, Hawaii may face a greater threat from tropical cyclones from warmer ocean temperatures over time.

“One thing we’ve already seen going back several decades is a northward shift in tropical cyclone tracks,” he explained. “Technically, it’s poleward because it’s in both the northern and southern hemisphere. Tracks are shifting to higher latitudes as ocean temperature gets warmer. Warm ocean water provides the energy that hurricanes need to maintain their strength and to develop in the first place. Warmer oceans means more energy available.”

Bravender explained that this season’s low cyclone estimate occurred in part from the effects of La Nina, a phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle when the ocean’s surface temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific are cooler, tradewinds are stronger, and the wind shear increases in Pacific so there is less cyclone activity, while cyclones in the Atlantic are generally more active at the same time.

If a hurricane posed a threat to Commander, Navy Region Hawaii (CNRH), tropical cyclone conditions of readiness (TCCOR) settings would be used to describe any storm with destructive winds, which have wind speeds equal or great than 50 knots, that occur within a specific time frame, explained Lt. Stephen Kyle Wheeler, the Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) officer in charge and TCCOR liaison at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

“It starts with TCCOR five, which is 96 hours out from the onset of destructive winds, TCCOR four is 72 hours, TCCOR three is 48 hours, TCCOR two is 24 hours and TCCOR one is 12 hours and there is also TCCOR one emergency, which is destructive winds are occurring, so we go through those stages,” explained Wheeler.

When the TCCOR level reaches five, Wheeler attends a daily teleconference with all meteorological entities for CNRH with U.S. Air Force Capt. Mattew Schall, the TCCOR recommender for Region Hawaii and the chief of United States Army Pacific weather operations.

“We’re discussing the storm, what we think is going to be happening, what we’re forecasting, so we can all come to a consensus as to when to recommend the setting of these different TCCOR settings, and also where we think the path of the storm is going based off models. I’m a part of that team, so I can hear what the whole meteorological community is saying and I can go back to Navy Region Hawaii commander and give that expertise for the Navy assets and units for Navy Region Hawaii.”

James “Jay” H. Price III, the CNRH emergency management specialist and planner, stressed that preparedness starts with having a plan – before disaster strikes.

“Emergencies happen, often with little or no notice. By taking action beforehand you and your family can be prepared for an emergency,” he said.

Price explained the key steps to prepare for an emergency like a hurricane: Start with staying informed about disasters and hazards in the area, how to get emergency alerts including from the AtHoc System on Joint Base Pearl Harbor–Hickam (JBPHH) and understanding where to go if an emergency evacuation is necessary.

Once an individual knows the potential dangers in an area, the next step is to make a plan, explained Price. A family should plan how they will contact each other if they are separated and establish a meeting place that is familiar and easy to find.

The last step in the emergency plan is to build a kit. The State of Hawaii Emergency Management recommends that a household has enough food and water so every family member can survive for 14 days in the event of an emergency.

According to William “Will” A. Luna, CNRH region emergency manager who oversees programs at JBPHH and the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF), Hawaii residents can directly support a disaster response.

“We need community members who are not already part of the first response team to get involved and help us prepare for and then more quickly recover from disasters,” said Luna “One of the best ways to get involved is to join a volunteer organization that is active in disasters. Known as VOAD (volunteer organizations active in disasters) these organizations often make a difference in how quickly a community can recover.”

Examples of VOAD in Hawaii include the American Red Cross, Team Rubicon, and the Salvation Army.

The last hurricane to pass near the Hawaiian Islands was Hurricane Douglas in 2020. It traveled just north of the islands and caused only minor damage. Bravender said he’s worried that the lack of visible damage from Hurricane Douglas made Hawaii residents complacent.

“That’s one of the things I really worry about, especially in Hawaii because we’re a small island in a big ocean,” explained Bravender. “If Douglas had happened in the gulf of Mexico, it would have hit land somewhere and if you are on the coast in one area and evacuate, it makes landfall a few dozen miles away and you see the damage and destruction it causes, you’ll say wow, I was lucky and I don’t want to go through that myself, so I’ll evacuate and I’ll prepare next time. Whereas, because we’re on an island, so it’s offshore, nobody sees the impacts, so I worry about people not taking these hazards seriously.”

Luna emphasized that keeping up with required trainings and thoroughly reviewing emergency plans for the office and the home gives everyone the best chance to safely navigate a disaster.

“To me, there is no such thing as too much training. However, for non-first responders, at a minimum they need the required annual training: Ready Navy. I’d also recommend they review their office or unit’s Emergency Action Plan (EAP). It should tell you exactly what to do at each TCCOR. At home: build a kit, make a plan, stay informed.”

The full list of volunteer organizations active in disasters (VOAD) for Hawaii is located at www.hawaiistatevoad.org.

The Ready Navy website is located at ready.navy.mil.